No puppet!

Trump talks to Tucker Carlson about his desire to withdraw US troops and "get out of a lot of areas," complains:
"We're the policeman for the whole world. You know, if you look at Russia, Russia doesn't police the world. Russia has — you know, they police Russia."
h/t @MatBabiak pic.twitter.com/quSVnvlU0e

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) July 2, 2019

Группа экспертов подготовила по заказу Пентагона (Объединённого комитета начальников штабов) "белую книгу" на тему "Russian Strategic Intentions".
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/30/pentagon-russia-influence-putin-trump-1535243

Основной вывод: оставаясь в рамках "второй этической системы" и играя в игру с нулевой суммой, Путин стремится не просто утвердить себя в качестве мирового "игрока", но и нанести максимальный урон США.

There is broad consensus among the contributors that Russian President Vladimir Putin is indeed adhering to a global grand strategy, which aims to achieve the following goals:
• Reclaim and secure Russia’s influence over former Soviet nations
• Regain worldwide recognition as a “great power”
• Portray itself as a reliable actor, a key regional powerbroker, and a successful mediator in order to gain economic, military, and political influence over nations worldwide and to refine the liberalist rules and norms that currently govern the world order.
According to Dr. Robert Person, these goals are motivated by Russia’s deep-seated geopolitical insecurity. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has struggled to find its place in the global community, which has left the leadership with a lingering desire to regain the influence and power that it once had. In particular, Russia seeks to regain its influence over former Soviet states, which it claims are in its rightful “sphere of influence”. As a result, one of the United States’ core goals, namely promoting and protecting the international liberal order, comes into contention with the goals of Russia’s grand strategy. This underpins the Kremlin’s belief that it must contain and constrain US influence and activities in Europe and elsewhere across the globe. As Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya’s contribution suggests, the Russian leadership’s worldview is zero-sum; it believes that in order for Russia to win, the US must lose.



Анна Борщевская своими словами: "Putin’s worldview is zero-sum, so it’s hard to imagine a win-win scenario. For Putin to win—to look “great,” the US has to lose. Due to our fundamentally opposing values and worldviews, we are likely to have a hard time coming up with genuinely shared goals that both sides can truly work on together."

Другой эксперт, Джереми Ламоро (Lamoreaux), призывает противостоять путинской кампании влияния в Европе путем поддержки политического либерализма: "Economic and political liberalism both create strong states capable of providing the institutions necessary for societal liberalism. Societal liberalism, when it is upheld by the rule of law, helps create a more diverse, yet united, populace more committed to the state, to its basic institutions, and less likely to be influenced by outside sources (in this case, Russia)."

Роберт Персон пишет о том, что центральной темой путинской глобальной стратегии является ватная мечта о разделе сфер влияния (Ялте-2.0): "This paper argues that a deep-seated sense of geopolitical insecurity motivates Russia to pursue strategic objectives to establish an uncontested sphere of influence within the post-Soviet region, secure for Russia a seat at the table of other great powers in critical regions outside its sphere, and contain and constrain America’s unilateral and multilateral pursuit of its own interests globally. Since 2007, it has developed a sophisticated set of gray zone tactics of “asymmetric balancing” through which Russia pursues its strategic ends within relatively limited means."

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Чего трамповский режим породил в избытке - так это интересных документальных книжек. Washington Post публикует отрывок из новой книжке известного репортера Грега Миллера The Apprentice: Trump, Russia and the Subversion of American Democracy.

Приоткрываются, в частности, детали разговоров Трампа с Путиным и решения о санкциях в ответ на отравление в Солсбери.

In phone conversations with Trump, Putin would whisper conspiratorially, telling the U.S. president that it wasn’t their fault that they could not consummate the relationship that each had sought. Instead, Putin sought to reinforce Trump’s belief that he was being undermined by a secret government cabal, a bureaucratic “deep state.”
“It’s not us. We get it,” Putin would tell Trump, according to White House aides. “It’s the subordinates fighting against our friendship.” <...>
When British Prime Minister Theresa May told Trump by phone that British authorities were 95 percent sure that Moscow was responsible, Trump replied, “Maybe we should get to 98 percent.”
During a weekend retreat at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump’s advisers persuaded him to support a plan to expel 60 suspected Russian intelligence operatives from the United States, telling him that Washington’s move would be matched in magnitude by allies in Europe.
Trump acquiesced, but his commitment unraveled on the trip back to Washington.
“Maybe we shouldn’t do this,” he said to deputy national security adviser Ricky L. Waddell during the short helicopter flight from Andrews Air Force Base to the White House on March 25.
The expulsions were set to be announced the next day in coordination with allies in Europe — an international show of resolve — and Trump was balking. Late that evening, Waddell scrambled to pull together a Situation Room meeting to confer with other top advisers on how to salvage the plan. White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, who called in on a secure phone line, said that he would phone Trump at his residence. “I’ll convince him,” Kelly said.
Kelly succeeded. But when the expulsions were announced, Trump erupted. He had expected France, Germany and other countries each to match the U.S. total, rather than for the cumulative response from Europe to be roughly equal to that of the United States. Trump worried that Putin would see him as the aggressor and accused aides of misleading him.
“There were curse words,” one official said, “a lot of curse words.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-apprentice-book-excerpt-at-cias-russia-house-growing-alarm-about-2016-election-interference/2018/09/18/51eb1732-b5c5-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html



Там же вспоминается, как первым шагом Трампа на посту президента стал визит в ЦРУ с безумной речью. "Понял ли он сам, что совершил плевок в лицо ЦРУ?" Как пишет Миллер, в следующие дни к стене памяти погибших сотрудников ЦРУ, перед которой Трамп толкал речь, сотрудники клали к стене цветы, как будто в знак скорби.

That week, something occurred that officials had seen only in the aftermath of a CIA tragedy. Flowers began to accumulate at the foot of the Memorial Wall on Monday, as the agency returned to work. By week’s end there was a small mound of bouquets placed by employees who passed by the stars in silence.

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Публикация на выходных ордеров FISA на прослушку Картера Пейджа не принесла принципиально новой информации, но дополнительно подтвердила ложность доклада Нунеса и достоверность доклада демократов.

Опубликованный файл содержит более 400 страниц и состоит из четырех заявок на ордер. Хотя большинство информации скрыто из соображений секретности, видно, что число страниц растет с каждой новой заявкой, что косвенно подтверждает, что прослушка приносила результаты.
https://www.scribd.com/document/384379567/Carter-Page-FISA-Documents-foia-Release



Сам факт публикации подобного ордера является беспрецедентным и стал возможным только благодаря деятельности Нунеса в его попытке помешать расследованию Мюллера. Неадекватная реакция Трампа на публикацию ордера на прослушку Пейджа в виде новой череды безумных твитов как бы подтверждает доказательство его причастности.

To be clear, Steele did not release the memos to me. He described what he had found. But he was indeed frustrated that the FBI investigation of the shocking Trump-Russia allegations was not moving faster ahead of the election. pic.twitter.com/rrVuTCxNgv

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) July 22, 2018

Новой информацией стало сообщение об обстоятельствах разрыва отношений между Кристофером Стилом и ФБР. В конце октября 2016 Стила вывело из равновесия печально известное письмо Коми в Конгресс. Он справедливо посчитал, что это письмо повлияет на выборы в пользу Трампа, и счел себя вправе поделиться имеющейся у него информацией с журналистами, в частности с Дэвидом Корном из Mother Jones. Свое досье он, однако, им не передавал.

В ответ ФБР разорвало связи со Стилом, а после выборов прекратилось и финансирование его расследования. В середине декабря 2016 Стил узнает о новой поездке Картера Пейджа в Москву и его новых контактах с Кремлем. Не зная, что Пейджа прослушивает ФБР, он бьет тревогу. Через британские контакты досье Стила попадает в руки Дэвида Крамера, который передает его Джону Маккейну, а также журналистам. Маккейн из рук в руки передает оригинал досье Джеймсу Коми.

Таким образом восстанавливается ход мыслей Стила до и после выборов.

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Wall Street Journal публикует отрывок из новой книги Джона Маккейна The Restless Wave: Good Times, Just Causes, Great Fights, and Other Appreciations, в которой он, не тратя лишних слов, говорит о Путине и путинизме.

Vladimir Putin is an evil man, and he is intent on evil deeds, which include the destruction of the liberal world order that the United States has led and that has brought more stability, prosperity and freedom to humankind than has ever existed in history. He is exploiting the openness of our society and the increasingly acrimonious political divisions consuming us. He wants to widen those divides and paralyze us from responding to his aggression. He meddled in one election, and he will do it again because it worked and because he has not been made to stop.
Putin’s goal isn’t to defeat a candidate or a party. He means to defeat the West. <...>
We must fight Vladimir Putin as determinedly as he fights us. We will stop him when we stop letting our partisan and personal interests expose our national security interests, even the integrity of our democracy and the rule of law, to his predation. We will stop him when we start believing in ourselves again and when we remember that our exceptionalism hasn’t anything to do with what we are—prosperous, powerful, envied—but with who we are: a people united by ideals, not ethnicity or geography, and determined to stand by those values, not just here at home but throughout the world.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/john-mccain-vladimir-putin-is-an-evil-man-1525964549



Об успехи операции по “destruction of the liberal world order” говорит заглавная картинка и редакционная статья в немецком журнале Шпигель, в ответ на разрыв Трампом соглашения с Ираном. Статья называется Time for Europe to Join the Resistance.

The West as we once knew it no longer exists. Our relationship to the United States cannot currently be called a friendship and can hardly be referred to as a partnership. President Trump has adopted a tone that ignores 70 years of trust. He wants punitive tariffs and demands obedience. It is no longer a question as to whether Germany and Europe will take part in foreign military interventions in Afghanistan or Iraq. It is now about whether trans-Atlantic cooperation on economic, foreign and security policy even exists anymore. The answer: No. It is impossible to overstate what Trump has dismantled in the last 16 months. Europe has lost its protective power. It has lost its guarantor of joint values. And it has lost the global political influence that it was only able to exert because the U.S. stood by its side. And what will happen in the remaining two-and-a-half years (or six-and-a-half years) of Trump's leadership? There is plenty of time left for further escalation.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/editorial-trump-deals-painful-blow-to-trans-atlantic-ties-a-1207260.html

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Джина Хаспел, номинированная Трампом на роль директора ЦРУ, является в своём деле профессионалом и среди сотрудников ЦРУ пользуется уважением. На ее репутации, однако, есть крупное пятно - во времена президентства Буша она была замешена в пытках заключённых в секретной тюрьме ЦРУ в Таиланде.

Just over a year after the Sept. 11 attacks, the C.I.A. dispatched the veteran clandestine officer Gina Haspel to oversee a secret prison in Thailand. Shortly after, agency contractors in the frantic hunt for the conspirators waterboarded a Qaeda suspect three times and subjected him to brutal interrogation techniques. Ms. Haspel’s time running the prison, code-named Cat’s Eye, began her deep involvement in the agency’s counterterrorism operations and showed her willingness to take part in the agency’s rendition, detention and interrogation program, which shaped her career. She was a rising star until that dark chapter in C.I.A. history began to emerge publicly.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/13/us/politics/gina-haspel-cia-director-nominee-trump-torture-waterboarding.html



Программа пыток (так называемого “intense interrogation”) была одобрена администрацией Буша в 2001-2007 для борьбы с терроризмом. Некоторые подробности этой практики в ЦРУ были раскрыты в результате расследования Сената и опубликованы в 2014 несмотря на сопротивление республиканцев. Правозащитные организации - такие, как Human Rights Watch и Amnesty International - призвали к расследованию и наказанию всех виновных в этой практике, включая самого Буша.

“Today’s release once again makes crystal clear that the US government used torture. Torture is a crime and those responsible for crimes must be brought to justice.
This was not some rogue operation. This was a program, chilling in its detail, unlawful from day one, that gave the green light to commit the crimes under international law of torture and enforced disappearance–with impunity. It’s time for accountability, including a full investigation, prosecutions and remedy for victims.
Former President George W. Bush should have been investigated long ago for his role in authorizing this program, including his assertion since leaving office that he personally granted the CIA’s request to use waterboarding and other ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’ against particular detainees. No person, however high the office they may have held, is above the rule of law.”
https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/release-of-torture-report-underscores-need-for-accountability/

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Майкл Морелл - ветеран разведки, который работал заместителем директора ЦРУ и и.о. директора в промежутках между назначениями других директоров. На выборах 2016 он поддержал Клинтон и в августе 2016 написал о том, что Трамп оказался завербованным Путиным в качестве «полезного идиота»:

In the intelligence business, we would say that Mr. Putin had recruited Mr. Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/05/opinion/campaign-stops/i-ran-the-cia-now-im-endorsing-hillary-clinton.html

Другой ветеран разведки, генерал Майкл Хайден, который работал в администрации Буша директором АНБ (1999-2005) и директором ЦРУ (2006-2009) за несколько дней до выборов прямо использовал термин «полезный дурак»:

We have really never seen anything like this. Former acting CIA director Michael Morell says that Putin has cleverly recruited Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation.
I’d prefer another term drawn from the arcana of the Soviet era: polezni durak. That’s the useful fool, some naif, manipulated by Moscow, secretly held in contempt, but whose blind support is happily accepted and exploited.
That’s a pretty harsh term, and Trump supporters will no doubt be offended. But, frankly, it’s the most benign interpretation of all this that I can come up with right now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/former-cia-chief-trump-is-russias-useful-fool/2016/11/03/cda42ffe-a1d5-11e6-8d63-3e0a660f1f04_story.html



Неизвестно, изменили ли они свою оценку с “unwitting agent” на “witting agent”. В новой совместной статье с бывшим республиканским конгрессменом Майком Роджерсом Майкл Морелл бьет тревогу о том, что российское вмешательство в американскую политику с помощью социальных сетей не прекратилось в 2016, активно продолжается в 2017 и без должного отпора будет использовано и Россией, и другими странами на будущих выборах.

Russia’s use of social media as a political weapon will continue, and more countries will follow suit — until deterrence is established. The sanctions that the Obama administration and Congress put in place in the aftermath of the 2016 election are steps in the right direction, but they were not significant enough to check Russian President Vladimir Putin. True deterrence requires policies that prevent adversaries from achieving their objectives while imposing significant costs on their regimes. So far, we have done neither.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russia-never-stopped-its-cyberattacks-on-the-united-states/2017/12/25/83076f2e-e676-11e7-a65d-1ac0fd7f097e_story.html

Репортаж Washington Post дополняет деталей к истории о том, как администрация Обамы пыталась придумать противодействие путинской атаке, но не осмелилась на более решительные действия, понадеявшись на прочность американских учреждений.

U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies saw some warning signs of Russian meddling in Europe and later in the United States but never fully grasped the breadth of the Kremlin’s ambitions. Top U.S. policymakers didn’t appreciate the dangers, then scrambled to draw up options to fight back. In the end, big plans died of internal disagreement, a fear of making matters worse or a misguided belief in the resilience of American society and its democratic institutions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kremlin-trolls-burned-across-the-internet-as-washington-debated-options/2017/12/23/e7b9dc92-e403-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html

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"Месть - блюдо, которое подают холодным". Юлия Иоффе получила возможность реванша за нападки Трампа и его семьи, опубликовав информационную бомбу - информацию о прямых сообщениях, которыми Дональд Трамп-младший обменивался с Викиликс во время и после избирательной кампании.

Таким образом раскрывается прямой канал связи, которого недоставало для обвинения в "collusion". Более того, выясняется, что в курсе контактов Дональда-младшего и Викиликс была вся гоп-компания.

According to a source familiar with the congressional investigations into Russian interference with the 2016 campaign, who requested anonymity because the investigation is ongoing, on the same day that Trump Jr. received the first message from WikiLeaks, he emailed other senior officials with the Trump campaign, including Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Brad Parscale, and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, telling them WikiLeaks had made contact. Kushner then forwarded the email to campaign communications staffer Hope Hicks.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/11/the-secret-correspondence-between-donald-trump-jr-and-wikileaks/545738/

We've now updated the story with @ByronTau's great catch: @realDonaldTrump tweeted about the release of Podesta's emails *15 minutes* after @Wikileaks wrote to @DonaldJTrumpJr about it. https://t.co/pVGEBqmB9O pic.twitter.com/pOszShJ7JY

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) November 13, 2017

Very little pick-up by the dishonest media of incredible information provided by WikiLeaks. So dishonest! Rigged system!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 12, 2016

Следует напомнить высказывание о Викиликс нынешнего директора ЦРУ Помпео: "It is time to call out WikiLeaks for what it really is – a non-state hostile intelligence service often abetted by state actors like Russia."

Из переписки с Дональдом-младшим анти-американское и про-путинское поведение Викиликс высвечивается вполне четко. Вначале контакта (20 сентября 2016) они зашкваривают Трампа, послав ему пароль к взломанному анти-трамповскому сайту putintrump.org. В день выборов, в ожидании победы Клинтон, они предлагают Трампу не признавать поражения, а продолжать мутить воду.

We assess with high confidence that the GRU relayed material it acquired from the DNC and senior Democratic officials to WikiLeaks. Moscow most likely chose WikiLeaks because of its self-proclaimed reputation for authenticity.
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf

"The Director stands by and has always stood by the January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment entitled: Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections," the CIA said in a statement when asked for reaction to the president's remarks. "The intelligence assessment with regard to Russian election meddling has not changed."
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/11/politics/mike-pompeo-cia-donald-trump-white-house-russia-meddling/index.html

Печально известный Девин Нунес ведёт партизанскую войну, рассылая письма в Министерство юстиции и ФБР в попытке дискредитировать досье Стила, а вместе с ним все расследование Рашагейта.

It may seem odd that Republicans believe going after the Steele memos, which included salacious allegations about Trump, is a way to help the president. But they appear to have two goals: to suggest the Steele memos were actually cooked up by the Russian government—and thus are proof that Moscow did not favor Trump in 2016—and to undercut the FBI’s Russia investigation by linking its origins to the Steele memos.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/09/trumps-congressional-allies-are-manipulating-the-steele-dossier-to-undercut-the-russia-investigation/



Нунес не совсем одинок. Помимо упомянутого в процитированной статье Чака Грассли, его поддерживает печально известный Трей Гауди, который сменил внезапно вышедшего в отставку Джейсона Чаффетса на посту председателя House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Гауди пока не выписывает собственные повестки, но поддерживает нападки на Коми, ФБР и Стила.

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Washington Post пишет, что каждое утро у Трампа начинается с обсуждения Рашагейта с его личными адвокатами.

President Trump has a new morning ritual. Around 6:30 a.m. on many days — before all the network news shows have come on the air — he gets on the phone with a member of his outside legal team to chew over all things Russia.
The calls — detailed by three senior White House officials — are part strategy consultation and part presidential venting session, during which Trump’s lawyers and public-relations gurus take turns reviewing the latest headlines with him. They also devise their plan for battling his avowed enemies: the special counsel leading the Russia investigation; the “fake news” media chronicling it; and, in some instances, the president’s own Justice Department overseeing the probe.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/trump-is-struggling-to-stay-calm-on-russia-one-morning-call-at-a-time/2017/06/22/1da3385a-5762-11e7-b38e-35fd8e0c288f_story.html

Согласно опросу CBS две трети американцев полагают, что в вопросе российского вмешательство Трамп больше заинтересован в защите себя и своей администрации, чем своей страны.

By a margin of more than two-to-one, Americans think Donald Trump is more interested in protecting his administration from investigation (64 percent) than protecting the United States from Russian interference (30 percent). Here, most Republicans break with Democrats and independents in defending the President, but one-third do feel the President is more concerned about his own Administration.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-handling-of-russia-investigations-weighs-on-approval-ratings/



Между тем о том, как администрация Обамы пыталась защитить страну, рассказывает другая подробная статья статья Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/national-security/obama-putin-election-hacking/

Из новой информации:

1. О том, что российская спецоперация была заказана лично Путиным, стало известно благодаря ЦРУ. Секретный доклад по этому поводу был предоставлен Обаме в начале августа 2016.

The intelligence captured Putin’s specific instructions on the operation’s audacious objectives — defeat or at least damage the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, and help elect her opponent, Donald Trump.

Намекают, что информация добывалась с помощью разведки другой страны.

Some of the most critical technical intelligence on Russia came from another country, officials said. Because of the source of the material, the NSA was reluctant to view it with high confidence.

Это объясняет, почему в январском докладе есть расхождением между спецслужбами в уровне их уверенности в личном участии Путина.

We also assess Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help President-elect Trump’s election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton and publicly contrasting her unfavorably to him. All three agencies agree with this judgment. CIA and FBI have high confidence in this judgment; NSA has moderate confidence.
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf

2. Секретные меры противодействия, которыми Обама грозил Путину, находятся в сфере компьютерной инфраструктуры.

The cyber operation is still in its early stages and involves deploying “implants” in Russian networks deemed “important to the adversary and that would cause them pain and discomfort if they were disrupted,” a former U.S. official said.
The implants were developed by the NSA and designed so that they could be triggered remotely as part of retaliatory cyber-strike in the face of Russian aggression, whether an attack on a power grid or interference in a future presidential race.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/national-security/obama-putin-election-hacking/

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Второразрядный актер Scott Baio - один из немногих в Голливуде, кто поддержал Трампа и даже выступал по этому поводу на республиканском съезде. В телесериале "Arrested Development" он играл адвоката по имени Bob Loblaw (каламбурная игра слов).

Но, похоже, Трампу теперь понадобились более серьезные адвокаты.



Washington Post сообщает о ходе процесса "lawyering up":

President Trump is moving rapidly toward assembling outside counsel to help him navigate the investigations into his campaign and Russian interference in last year’s election, and in recent days he and his advisers have privately courted several prominent attorneys to join the effort. <...> That search process, in which Trump has been personally involved, is expected to yield a formal legal unit in the coming days, made up of lawyers from several firms who would work together to guide Trump as he responds both to the ongoing federal probe and the congressional investigations, the people said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-close-to-choosing-outside-counsel-for-russia-investigation/2017/05/22/8709f62e-3f22-11e7-9869-bac8b446820a_story.html



В качестве финалистов в конкурсе на роль адвокатской команды для защиты Трампа от возможных обвинений, связанных с российским скандалом, называют фирму Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman, услугами которой Трамп пользуется с 2001 г. Oдин из партнеров, David Friedman, был назначен Трампом послом в Израиль. Среди других сотрудников фирмы - Джо Либерман, финалист на пост директора ФБР. Среди других крупных клиентов - Сбербанк.

Marc E. Kasowitz is representing OJSC Sberbank of Russia, which is accused in US federal court of conspiring with granite company executives — including Russia’s former minister of economy and trade — in what the plaintiffs say amounts to a “textbook case of Russian corporate raiding.”https://www.buzzfeed.com/anthonycormier/trumps-longtime-lawyer-is-defending-russias-biggest-bank

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