puppet_djt | Entries tagged with досье

tijd.livejournal.com

Толковый в целом блог putinism.wordpress.com утверждает, что Сергей Скрипаль послужил одним из источников в досье Кристофера Стила:

Тезис о компромате ФСБ на Трампа в досье Стила приводится со ссылкой на «бывшего высокопоставленного офицера российской разведки». Такой «бывший высокопоставленный офицер российской разведки» в окружении Кристофера Стила был только один, и он много лет сотрудничал с его фирмой. Это Сергей Юрьевич Скрипаль.
https://putinism.wordpress.com/2018/09/15/skripal/

Это, может, и так, но часть, которая приписывается Скрипалю, скорее всего из другого источника. "Source B" в досье, который сообщил о компромате ФСБ на Трампа - "a former top level Russian intelligence officer still active inside the Kremlin".

К Скрипалю, вероятно, можно отнести другую часть досье:

A former senior intelligence officer divided Russian state-sponsored offensive cyber operations into four categories (in order of priority):- targeting foreign, especially western governments; penetrating leading foreign business corporations, especially banks; domestic monitoring of the elite; and attacking political opponents both at home and abroad. The former intelligence officer reported that the Federal Security Service (FSB) was the lead organization within the Russian state apparatus for cyber operations.

Но она неверна по существу - как мы теперь знаем, основные хакерские атаки шли не от ФСБ, а от ГРУ.

Семь сотрудников ГРУ, замешанных в хакерские атаки на разные организации, были на днях разоблачены совместными усилиями контрразведок США, Британии и Нидерландов.

A grand jury in the Western District of Pennsylvania has indicted seven defendants, all officers in the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), a military intelligence agency of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, for computer hacking, wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, and money laundering.
According to the indictment, beginning in or around December 2014 and continuing until at least May 2018, the conspiracy conducted persistent and sophisticated computer intrusions affecting U.S. persons, corporate entities, international organizations, and their respective employees located around the world, based on their strategic interest to the Russian government.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-charges-russian-gru-officers-international-hacking-and-related-influence-and

Из комментария Джона Демерса, главы отдела национальной безопасности Минюста:

It is evident from the allegations in today’s indictment that the defendants believed that they could use their perceived anonymity to act with impunity, in their own countries and on territories of other sovereign nations, to undermine international institutions and to distract from their government’s own wrong-doing.
They were wrong. Working together with our partners in nations that share our values, we can expose the truth for the world to see.
Nations like Russia, and others that engage in malicious and norm-shattering cyber and influence activities, should understand the continuing and steadfast resolve of the United States and its allies to prevent, disrupt, and deter such unacceptable conduct.
The defendants in this case should know that justice is very patient, its reach is long and its memory is even longer.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/assistant-attorney-general-national-security-john-c-demers-delivers-remarks-unsealing

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tijd.livejournal.com

Чего трамповский режим породил в избытке - так это интересных документальных книжек. Washington Post публикует отрывок из новой книжке известного репортера Грега Миллера The Apprentice: Trump, Russia and the Subversion of American Democracy.

Приоткрываются, в частности, детали разговоров Трампа с Путиным и решения о санкциях в ответ на отравление в Солсбери.

In phone conversations with Trump, Putin would whisper conspiratorially, telling the U.S. president that it wasn’t their fault that they could not consummate the relationship that each had sought. Instead, Putin sought to reinforce Trump’s belief that he was being undermined by a secret government cabal, a bureaucratic “deep state.”
“It’s not us. We get it,” Putin would tell Trump, according to White House aides. “It’s the subordinates fighting against our friendship.” <...>
When British Prime Minister Theresa May told Trump by phone that British authorities were 95 percent sure that Moscow was responsible, Trump replied, “Maybe we should get to 98 percent.”
During a weekend retreat at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump’s advisers persuaded him to support a plan to expel 60 suspected Russian intelligence operatives from the United States, telling him that Washington’s move would be matched in magnitude by allies in Europe.
Trump acquiesced, but his commitment unraveled on the trip back to Washington.
“Maybe we shouldn’t do this,” he said to deputy national security adviser Ricky L. Waddell during the short helicopter flight from Andrews Air Force Base to the White House on March 25.
The expulsions were set to be announced the next day in coordination with allies in Europe — an international show of resolve — and Trump was balking. Late that evening, Waddell scrambled to pull together a Situation Room meeting to confer with other top advisers on how to salvage the plan. White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, who called in on a secure phone line, said that he would phone Trump at his residence. “I’ll convince him,” Kelly said.
Kelly succeeded. But when the expulsions were announced, Trump erupted. He had expected France, Germany and other countries each to match the U.S. total, rather than for the cumulative response from Europe to be roughly equal to that of the United States. Trump worried that Putin would see him as the aggressor and accused aides of misleading him.
“There were curse words,” one official said, “a lot of curse words.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-apprentice-book-excerpt-at-cias-russia-house-growing-alarm-about-2016-election-interference/2018/09/18/51eb1732-b5c5-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html

Там же вспоминается, как первым шагом Трампа на посту президента стал визит в ЦРУ с безумной речью. "Понял ли он сам, что совершил плевок в лицо ЦРУ?" Как пишет Миллер, в следующие дни к стене памяти погибших сотрудников ЦРУ, перед которой Трамп толкал речь, сотрудники клали к стене цветы, как будто в знак скорби.

That week, something occurred that officials had seen only in the aftermath of a CIA tragedy. Flowers began to accumulate at the foot of the Memorial Wall on Monday, as the agency returned to work. By week’s end there was a small mound of bouquets placed by employees who passed by the stars in silence.

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tijd.livejournal.com

Публикация на выходных ордеров FISA на прослушку Картера Пейджа не принесла принципиально новой информации, но дополнительно подтвердила ложность доклада Нунеса и достоверность доклада демократов.

Опубликованный файл содержит более 400 страниц и состоит из четырех заявок на ордер. Хотя большинство информации скрыто из соображений секретности, видно, что число страниц растет с каждой новой заявкой, что косвенно подтверждает, что прослушка приносила результаты.
https://www.scribd.com/document/384379567/Carter-Page-FISA-Documents-foia-Release

Сам факт публикации подобного ордера является беспрецедентным и стал возможным только благодаря деятельности Нунеса в его попытке помешать расследованию Мюллера. Неадекватная реакция Трампа на публикацию ордера на прослушку Пейджа в виде новой череды безумных твитов как бы подтверждает доказательство его причастности.

To be clear, Steele did not release the memos to me. He described what he had found. But he was indeed frustrated that the FBI investigation of the shocking Trump-Russia allegations was not moving faster ahead of the election. pic.twitter.com/rrVuTCxNgv
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) July 22, 2018

Новой информацией стало сообщение об обстоятельствах разрыва отношений между Кристофером Стилом и ФБР. В конце октября 2016 Стила вывело из равновесия печально известное письмо Коми в Конгресс. Он справедливо посчитал, что это письмо повлияет на выборы в пользу Трампа, и счел себя вправе поделиться имеющейся у него информацией с журналистами, в частности с Дэвидом Корном из Mother Jones. Свое досье он, однако, им не передавал.

В ответ ФБР разорвало связи со Стилом, а после выборов прекратилось и финансирование его расследования. В середине декабря 2016 Стил узнает о новой поездке Картера Пейджа в Москву и его новых контактах с Кремлем. Не зная, что Пейджа прослушивает ФБР, он бьет тревогу. Через британские контакты досье Стила попадает в руки Дэвида Крамера, который передает его Джону Маккейну, а также журналистам. Маккейн из рук в руки передает оригинал досье Джеймсу Коми.

Таким образом восстанавливается ход мыслей Стила до и после выборов.

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tijd.livejournal.com

6 январе 2017 руководители американской разведки и директор ФБР приехали в Нью-Йорк, чтобы провести в Trump Tower брифинг вновь избранного президента Трампа и показать ему секретную информацию о российском вмешательстве в выборы. Новые детали об этой встрече сообщает New York Times:

Two weeks before his inauguration, Donald J. Trump was shown highly classified intelligence indicating that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had personally ordered complex cyberattacks to sway the 2016 American election.
The evidence included texts and emails from Russian military officers and information gleaned from a top-secret source close to Mr. Putin, who had described to the C.I.A. how the Kremlin decided to execute its campaign of hacking and disinformation.
Mr. Trump sounded grudgingly convinced, according to several people who attended the intelligence briefing. But ever since, Mr. Trump has tried to cloud the very clear findings that he received on Jan. 6, 2017, which his own intelligence leaders have unanimously endorsed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/world/europe/trump-intelligence-russian-election-meddling-.html

После встречи публичный доклад разведки был опубликован. Сотрудники Трампа выпустили заявление от его имени:

“While Russia, China, other countries, outside groups and people are consistently trying to break through the cyber infrastructure of our governmental institutions, businesses and organizations including the Democrat National Committee, there was absolutely no effect on the outcome of the election including the fact that there was no tampering whatsoever with voting machines. <...>
Whether it is our government, organizations, associations or businesses we need to aggressively combat and stop cyberattacks. I will appoint a team to give me a plan within 90 days of taking office. The methods, tools and tactics we use to keep America safe should not be a public discussion that will benefit those who seek to do us harm. Two weeks from today I will take the oath of office and America’s safety and security will be my number one priority.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/06/us/politics/donald-trump-statement-hack-intelligence-briefing.html

Естественно, обещание про "team to give me a plan within 90 days of taking office" оказалось пустышкой. На уровне Белого дома никаких директив до сих пор не поступало, a АНБ приходится заботиться про "number one priority" ("America’s safety and security") и бороться с хакерскими атаками своими силами.

The head of the nation’s largest electronic spy agency and the military’s cyberwarfare arm has directed the two organizations to coordinate actions to counter potential Russian interference in the 2018 midterm elections.
The move, announced to staff at the National Security Agency last week by NSA Director Paul Nakasone, is an attempt to maximize the efforts of the two groups and comes as President Trump in Helsinki on Monday said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “extremely strong and powerful” in denying Russian involvement in the presidential election two years ago.
It is the latest initiative by national security agencies to push back against Russian aggression in the absence of direct guidance from the White House on the issue.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nsa-and-cyber-command-to-coordinate-actions-to-counter-russian-election-interference-in-2018-amid-absence-of-white-house-guidance/2018/07/17/baac95b2-8900-11e8-85ae-511bc1146b0b_story.html

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tijd.livejournal.com

Марк Уорнер - самый состоятельный сенатор, заработавший в прошлой жизни порядка $100 миллионов - устраивал в конце июня для коллег по демократический партии прием в своем доме в Martha’s Vineyard. Была подслушана его шутливая реплика: “If you get me one more glass of wine, I’ll tell you stuff only Bob Mueller and I know. If you think you’ve seen wild stuff so far, buckle up. It’s going to be a wild couple of months.”
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2018/06/24/overheard-at-the-dscc-retreat-on-marthas-vineyard-281247

Посмотрим, что нам принесут следующие пара месяцев. Пока что комиссия Сената по разведке, где Уорнер служит заместителем председателя, выпустила важный промежуточный отчет, в котором явным образом подтверждает выводы американских разведслужб, опубликованные в январе 2017, о российском вмешательстве в выборы 2016 и о том, что это вмешательство осуществлялось по личному указанию Путина и для помощи Трампу.

The Committee finds that the Intelligence Community met President Obama’s tasking and that the ICA is a sound intelligence product. While the Committee had to rely on agencies that the sensitive information and accesses had been accurately reported, as part of our inquiry the Committee reviewed analytic procedures, interviewed senior intelligence officers well-versed with the information, and based our findings on the entire body of intelligence reporting included in the ICA. <...>
As the inquiry has progressed since January 2017, the Committee has seen additional examples of Russia's attempts to sow discord, undermine democratic institutions, and interfere in U.S. elections and those of our allies.
https://www.burr.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SSCI%20ICA%20ASSESSMENT_FINALJULY3.pdf

Доклад также подтверждает, что в своих выводах разведка и котрразведка не использовала информацию из досье Стила, а полагалась на собственные источники.

The FBI had a collection of reports a former foreign intelligence officer was hired to compile as opposition research for the U.S. election, referred to asthe "dossier," when the ICA was drafted. However, those reports remained separate from the conclusions of the ICA. All individuals the Committee interviewed verified that the dossier did not in any way inform the analysis in the ICA - including the key findings - because it was unverified information and had not been disseminated asserialized intelligence reporting.

Комиссия находится в контакте с Кристофером Стилом и его адвокатами и продолжает пробивать возможность для Стила дать официальные показания.

The head of the top congressional committee investigating Russian election interference says that the panel has been in “weekly” contact with lawyers for former British spy Christopher Steele, the author of a dossier alleging years of links between President Donald Trump and the Kremlin.
“We’re still in conversation weekly,” North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr, chair of the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, told BuzzFeed News. Asked if Steele had provided any information to the committee, Burr said: “That continues to be the topic weekly.”
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emmaloop/senate-intel-christopher-steele-dossier-interview

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tijd.livejournal.com

Понемногу проясняются различные детали Рашагейта, до того остававшиеся в тумане. Репортаж New York Times рассказывает про то, как в ФБР было начато расследование контрразведки под кодовым названием “Crossfire Hurricane”.

Within hours of opening an investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia in the summer of 2016, the F.B.I. dispatched a pair of agents to London on a mission so secretive that all but a handful of officials were kept in the dark.
Their assignment, which has not been previously reported, was to meet the Australian ambassador, who had evidence that one of Donald J. Trump’s advisers knew in advance about Russian election meddling. After tense deliberations between Washington and Canberra, top Australian officials broke with diplomatic protocol and allowed the ambassador, Alexander Downer, to sit for an F.B.I. interview to describe his meeting with the campaign adviser, George Papadopoulos.
The agents summarized their highly unusual interview and sent word to Washington on Aug. 2, 2016, two days after the investigation was opened. Their report helped provide the foundation for a case that, a year ago Thursday, became the special counsel investigation. But at the time, a small group of F.B.I. officials knew it by its code name: Crossfire Hurricane.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/16/us/politics/crossfire-hurricane-trump-russia-fbi-mueller-investigation.html

В ФБР держали расследование в тайне, потому что знали, что не сумеют закончить его до выборов.

Top officials became convinced that there was almost no chance they would answer the question of collusion before Election Day. And that made agents even more cautious.
The F.B.I. obtained phone records and other documents using national security letters — a secret type of subpoena — officials said. And at least one government informant met several times with Mr. Page and Mr. Papadopoulos, current and former officials said.

Существование неизвестного информатора, который встречался с Пейджем и Пападопулосом, не на шутку встревожило Трампа и тех, кто пытается его отмазать. ФБР и Минюст борятся за то, чтобы сохранить это имя в секрете, поскольку его публикация может представлять угрозу для жизни людей. Но трампистов такие мелочи не останавливают.

The dispute pits Trump and the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee against the Justice Department and intelligence agencies, whose leaders warn that publicly identifying the confidential source would put lives in danger and imperil other operations.
The stakes are so high that the FBI has been working over the past two weeks to mitigate the potential damage if the source’s identity is revealed, according to several people familiar with the matter. The bureau is taking steps to protect other live investigations that the person has worked on and is trying to lessen any danger to associates if the informant’s identity becomes known, said these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence operations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bigger-than-watergate-trump-joins-push-by-allies-to-expose-an-fbi-source/2018/05/17/db211542-59ea-11e8-8836-a4a123c359ab_story.html

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tijd.livejournal.com

Событие вчерашней недели, которое не вошло во вчерашний дайджест - публикация записок Коми.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4442900-Ex-FBI-Director-James-Comey-s-memos.html

Публикация произошла в результате слива из Конгресса, где записки Коми затребовали под угрозой повестки из Министерства юстиции республиканские председатели трех комиссий: Нунес, Гудлатте и Гауди.

“The Committees request the Department of Justice make copies of the Comey memos available immediately. Copies of any unclassified memos should be produced to all three Committees in unredacted form. Copies of any memos containing classified information should be produced to all three Committees in both (1) unredacted form, in an appropriately secure setting; and (2) declassified form, with appropriate redactions. There is no legal basis for withholding these materials from Congress.”
https://oversight.house.gov/release/goodlatte-gowdy-nunes-request-copies-of-comey-memos/

Этот ход рассматривался комментаторами, как попытка подставить Рода Розенштейна и дать повод Трампу для его увольнения. Розенштейн поддался давлению и в результате создал опасный прецедент публикации материальных свидетельств текущего расследования по политическим причинам.

Те же деятели, продолжая пытаться ловить рыбку в темной воде, затребовали у Розенштейна документы из ФБР о расследовании Клинтон и ордеру FISA на Картера Пейджа.

“The Committees have reached an agreement with the Department of Justice to access the documents we have been requesting for months. We look forward to reviewing the information to better understand the decisions made by the Department of Justice in 2016 and 2017. Congress has a constitutional responsibility to preserve the integrity of our justice system by ensuring transparency and accountability of actions taken.”
https://oversight.house.gov/release/goodlatte-gowdy-reach-agreement-with-the-department-of-justice/

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tijd.livejournal.com

Две истории этой недели нашли логическое завершение под конец недели.

1. Угрозы в адрес Сирии завершились обещанным ракетным ударом.

"In 2013, President Putin and his government promised the world that they would guarantee the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons. Assad’s recent attack -- and today’s response -- are the direct result of Russia’s failure to keep that promise.
Russia must decide if it will continue down this dark path, or if it will join with civilized nations as a force for stability and peace. Hopefully, someday we’ll get along with Russia, and maybe even Iran -- but maybe not."
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/features/2018/0418_syria/img/statement-by-president-trump-on-syria.pdf

"Своими действиями США еще больше усугубляют гуманитарную катастрофу в Сирии, несут страдания мирному населению, по сути потакают террористам, семь лет терзающим сирийский народ, провоцируют новую волну беженцев из этой страны и региона в целом."
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57257

Pentagon spokesperson on strikes in Syria: “The Russian disinformation campaign has already begun. There has been a 2,000% increase in Russian trolls in the last 24 hours.” https://t.co/0Bzv1nm4q6 pic.twitter.com/va1zq5qF3m
— CNN (@CNN) April 14, 2018

В Пентагоне предупредили о массированной российской кампании дезинформации.

Based on recent experience, we fully expect a significant disinformation campaign over the coming days by those who have aligned themselves with the Assad regime.
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/1493610/statement-by-secretary-james-n-mattis-on-syria/

Радует в этой кампании то, что сразу вылезает на поверхность вся шобла агентов влияния и полезных идиотов.

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tijd.livejournal.com

6 января 2017 Трамп прослушал брифинг руководителей разведки о российском вмешательстве в выборы, включая разговор тет-а-тет с директором ФБР Коми о досье Стила. Несмотря на предосторожности Коми, он начинает подозревать, что ФБР пытается его шантажировать.

After receiving a two-page summary of the contents of the Steele dossier — a collection of memos by former intelligence officer Christopher Steele that alleges a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government — and sitting through a briefing about Russia, the then-President-elect reacted by believing he was getting blackmailed by then-FBI Director James Comey. "It's a shakedown," Trump reportedly said.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/book-trump-wanted-papadopoulos-set-meeting-putin-article-1.3872264

На следующее утро Трамп идет в свой верный Твиттер и предлагает своим поклонникам альтернативное объяснение своей привязанности к Путину:

Having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. Only "stupid" people, or fools, would think that it is bad! We.....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017

have enough problems around the world without yet another one. When I am President, Russia will respect us far more than they do now and....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017

both countries will, perhaps, work together to solve some of the many great and pressing problems and issues of the WORLD!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017

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tijd.livejournal.com

В новом номере New Yorker - длинная статья о Кристофере Стиле: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/03/12/christopher-steele-the-man-behind-the-trump-dossier

Автор - Джейн Майер, одна из лучших журналистов-расследователей, которая писала в 2016 про Тони Шварца, соавтора The Art of the Deal, и его роли в создании имиджа Трампа как удачного бизнесмена, а в 2017 - про Роберта Мерсера и его роль в создании Трампа как удачного политика.

Как и другие рассказы про Кристофера Стила, статья подтверждает его безупречную репутацию разведчика и эксперта по России. Когда он заведовал русским отделом MI-6, результаты его работы активно использовались ЦРУ и появлялись в том числе в докладах американскому президенту.

The British Secret Intelligence Service is highly regarded by the United States, particularly for its ability to harvest information from face-to-face sources, rather than from signals intelligence, such as electronic surveillance, as the U.S. often does. British and American intelligence services work closely together, and, while Steele was at M.I.6, British intelligence was often included in the U.S. President’s daily-briefing reports. In 2008, Michael Hayden, the C.I.A. director, visited the U.K., and Steele briefed him on Russian developments. The following year, President Obama visited the U.K., and was briefed on a report that Steele had written about Russia. Steve Hall, a former chief of the C.I.A.’s Central Eurasia Division, which includes Russia, the former Soviet states, and the Balkans, told me, “M.I.6 is second only perhaps to the U.S. in its ability to collect intelligence from Russia.” He added, “We’ve always coördinated closely with them because they did such a great job. We’re playing in the Yankee Stadium of espionage here. This isn’t Guatemala.”

WATCH our full interview with former CIA Director John Brennan in "The #Putin Files" https://t.co/So7CeU9mmL #frontlinePBS pic.twitter.com/gzI8PfN80z
— FRONTLINE (@frontlinepbs) November 2, 2017

В статье упоминается также о том, что британцы прослушивали подозрительные контакты российских спецслужб с представителями Трампа и передали эту информацию в ЦРУ.

Robert Hannigan, then the head of the U.K.’s intelligence service the G.C.H.Q., had recently flown to Washington and briefed the C.I.A.’s director, John Brennan, on a stream of illicit communications between Trump’s team and Moscow that had been intercepted. (The content of these intercepts has not become public.)

По словам Джона Бреннана, бывшего директора ЦРУ, он передавал всю такую информацию ФБР.

There were things that happened, meetings that took place between individuals on the Russian side and on the U.S. side that raised my concerns about collaboration related to the election. I didn’t know what was motivating some people, but I certainly was concerned. And anything that we had that involved U.S. persons, anything that the CIA collected or had information about involving U.S. persons, we immediately shared it with the FBI, because it’s their responsibility to pull those investigative threads.
So I was aware, contemporaneously, of some things that were going on, which again caused me to furrow my brow and say, “What's this all about?” But I didn’t follow it up. I was confident that the FBI would be able to do its job.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/john-brennan/

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Год назад конференция CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) запомнилась совместным выступлением Стива Бэннона и Ринса Прибуса, которые рассказывали, как слаженно под их чутким руководством работает аппарат Белого дома. Ныне их духу там уж нет, а они обзавелись одним адвокатом на двоих для защиты в Рашагейте.

В этом году тоже были свои моменты. Трудно сказать, что лучше символизирует упадок американского консерватизма - Марион Ле Пен в качестве почетного заморского гостя или Девин Нунес, получающий награду "Defender of Freedom" за свой печально известный доклад.

Одновременно вчера был опубликован обещанный доклад демократов: https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hpsci_redacted_minority_memo.pdf

Принципиально новой информации мало, в основном из-за купюр, наложенных ФБР и Министерством юстиции. Но если были какие-то не до конца ясные моменты, они прояснились.

Have now read and analyzed Nunes & Schiff memos. Can come to only 1 conclusion: Nunes, GOP leaders, & Trump intentionally lied 2hurt FBI & USA and benefit Russia. That is unlike anything we have seen—far worse than McCarthy or Nixon, who were not aiding our foreign adversaries
— Norm Eisen (@NormEisen) February 25, 2018

К примеру, прояснился ответ на вопрос "Какую именно информацию из статьи Исикоффа использовали в ФБР для запроса на прослушку Пейджа?"

The Majority falsely claims that the FISA materials "relied heavily" on a September 23, 2016 Yahoo! News article by Mchael Isikoff and that this article "does not corroborate the Steele Dossier because it is derived from information leaked by Steele himself." In fact, DOJ referenced Isikoff's article, alongside another article the Majority fails to mention, not to provide separate corroboration for Steele's reporting, but instead to inform the Court of Page's public denial of his suspected meetings in Moscow, which Page also echoed in a September 25, 2016 letter to FBI Director Comey (REDACTED).
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/02/24/us/ap-us-trump-russia-probe-democratic-memo-text.html

Таким образом, использовалась не информация в статье, а тот факт, что Пейдж публично ее публично отрицал.

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В Washington Post - репортаж про историю Кристофеда Стила и его досье, включая отзыв о Стиле бывшего главы MI-6:

Among those who have continued to seek his expertise is Steele’s former boss Richard Dearlove, who headed MI6 from 1999 to 2004.
In an interview, Dearlove said Steele became the “go-to person on Russia in the commercial sector” following his retirement from the Secret Intelligence Service. He described the reputations of Steele and his business partner, fellow intelligence veteran Christopher Burrows, as “superb.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hero-or-hired-gun-how-a-british-former-spy-became-a-flash-point-in-the-russia-investigation/2018/02/06/94ea5158-0795-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html

Журналисты Washington Post признаются, что встречались со Стилом в сентябре 2016 и получили от неги информацию из досье "off the record", но не смогли ее проверить и в итоге ничего не опубликовали.

Единственная публикация по материалам Стила касалась была статья Майкла Исикоффа в Yahoo News: U.S. intel officials probe ties between Trump adviser and Kremlin
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-s-intel-officials-probe-ties-between-trump-adviser-and-kremlin-175046002.html

Isikoff said he was introduced to Steele by Glenn Simpson, the former journalist who founded the research firm, Fusion GPS, who invited him to meet a “secret source” at a Washington restaurant.
“Glenn had booked a private room upstairs so that no one would see us,” Isikoff recalled. “During the hour or so we talked that day, Steele tells me an amazing story — how one of Donald Trump’s foreign policy advisers, Carter Page, had flown to Moscow and had private talks with close associates of Vladimir Putin about lifting U.S. sanctions against Russia.”
“And Steele tells me something else that day that gets my attention: He’s taken this information to the FBI and the bureau is very interested,” Isikoff continued. “Why were they interested? What did the bureau know that would prompt them to take the extraordinary step to launch an investigation into an adviser of the Republican nominee for president?”
Isikoff said Steele was “a serious guy” and came across as credible.
“He was not interested in small talk,” Isikoff said. “It was all business. And he had what clearly he viewed as very significant information he developed from his sources.”
Isikoff said his resulting story did not rely solely on what Steele told him.
“I talked to a senior U.S. law enforcement official who was well aware of these allegations,” Isikoff said. “For me, the key piece, the reason that this was a story, was the fact that the FBI was investigating Page.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-news-michael-isikoff-describes-crucial-meeting-cited-nunes-memo-231005733.html

Два загадочных вопроса:

1. Почему ни один другой журналист из тех, с кем встречался Стил, не смог сделать того, что сделал Исикофф?
2. Какую именно информацию из статьи Исикоффа использовали в ФБР для запроса на прослушку Пейджа?

That was a good scoop, but the FBI obviously did not need to reference a Yahoo article to inform a FISA court of Comey's participation in briefings or receipt of a letter. The FBI did not need a Yahoo article to inform a FISA court that Page was on the “radar screen” of federal law enforcement. The FBI did not need a Yahoo article to inform a FISA court of Page's publicly known work for Merrill Lynch in Moscow or his publicly known (and previously covered) speech at a Moscow school in July 2016, all of which Isikoff mentioned.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/02/02/the-memos-description-of-a-supposedly-key-news-report-is-wrong/

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На картинке - Кашьяп Пател, помощник Нунеса и главный автора пресловутого доклада на 3 с половиной страницы. Остаётся открытым вопрос, насколько он координировал свою деятельность с Белым домом.

Mr. Patel has apparently forged connections at the White House. In November, he posted a series of photos to Facebook of him and several friends wearing matching shirts at the White House bowling alley. “The Dons hit the lanes at 1600 Pennsylvania,” Mr. Patel wrote under the photos.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/us/politics/kashyap-patel-nunes-memo.html

Сам доклад, как и ожидалось, оказался пустышкой: https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/02/politics/fbi-nunes-memo-full/index.html

Это не помешало королю трампоганды Хэннити продолжать истерику (“Now this now is the biggest abuse of power, corruption case in American history.“) и призывы к немедленному прекращению расследования Мюллера, а самому Трампу утверждать, что теперь-то он уж точно полностью оправдан (“This memo totally vindicates Trump in probe.”)

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Последние новости Рашагейта крутятся вокруг принципа "follow the money".

1. Опубликованы показания Гленна Симпсона комиссии по разведке Палаты представителей:
http://docs.house.gov/meetings/IG/IG00/20180118/106796/HMTG-115-IG00-20180118-SD002.pdf

Немного короче, чем показания в юридической комиссии Сената, но читается интересней. Симпсон дает подсказки о том, что можно расследовать по части связей Трампа с мафией и отмыванием денег.

Интересный момент про Фаража и Ассанжа.

"Were you able to find any factual links between the Mercers and Assange or Wikileaks or Farage?" Schiff asked.
Simpson pointed to Farage's trips to New York, and said he had been told, but had not confirmed, that "Nigel Farage had additional trips to the Ecuadoran Embassy...and that he provided data to Julian Assange."
"What kind of data?" Schiff asked.
"A thumb drive," Simpson replied.
http://www.businessinsider.com/read-fusion-gps-glenn-simpson-interview-with-house-intelligence-committee-2018-1

2. Симпсон упомянул про инфильтрацию NRA: "It appears the Russians, you know, infiltrated the NRA. And there is more than one explanation for why. But I would say broadly speaking, it appears that the Russian operation was designed to infiltrate conservative organizations."

На днях как раз появилось сообщение о том, что ФБР расследует возможный поток денег через Торшина в NRA на поддержку избирательной кампании Трампа.

The FBI is investigating whether a top Russian banker with ties to the Kremlin illegally funneled money to the National Rifle Association to help Donald Trump win the presidency, two sources familiar with the matter have told McClatchy.
FBI counterintelligence investigators have focused on the activities of Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank who is known for his close relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the NRA, the sources said.
It is illegal to use foreign money to influence federal elections.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article195231139.html

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На фото - сенатор Дайэн Файнстайн (в девичестве Голдман) в свои студенческие годы в Стэнфорде.

The biggest decision of her undergraduate years was running for student body vice president, the highest office women could hold, in the spring of 1954. One of three candidates, she sought votes everywhere she could — including fraternity row, which wasn’t exactly receptive to Feinstein’s stump speeches. “I was probably the first woman ever to campaign that way.” The all-male audiences threw food at her and hauled her into a shower to dunk her.
https://medium.com/stanford-magazine/dianne-feinstein-profile-4e42c215c227

Вчера сенатор Файнстайн легко обыграла Трампа в дискуссии об иммиграционной реформе, а также смелым решением опубликовала протокол показаний в Сенате Глена Симпсона, главы Fusion GPS, несмотря на протесты республиканцев и лично Чака Грассли, главы комиссии.

“After speaking with majority and minority committee staff for 10 hours, Glenn Simpson requested the transcript of his interview be released publicly. The American people deserve the opportunity to see what he said and judge for themselves. The innuendo and misinformation circulating about the transcript are part of a deeply troubling effort to undermine the investigation into potential collusion and obstruction of justice. The only way to set the record straight is to make the transcript public.”
https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=B708D3CB-A945-4436-8FB8-9D85978C5EEF

В показаниях Симпсона принципиально нового нет. Но они имеют вес, поскольку давались под угрозой уголовного наказания за ложные сведения, и поскольку они протыкают пузырь вранья про досье Стила, который пытались надуть Трамп и его прихвостни.

Never seen such Republican ANGER & UNITY as I have concerning the lack of investigation on Clinton made Fake Dossier (now $12,000,000?),....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 29, 2017

"Republican ANGER & UNITY" оказались бессильными перед фактами. Зная о пристастии российских спецслужб к дезинформации, Кристофер Стил оценивает достоверность досье в 70-90%. Но даже если верны 10-30%, информация там серьезно инкриминирует Трампа и его избирательную кампанию.

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В Вашингтоне происходят непонятные явления. С одной стороны, выход книжки "Fire and fire" произвел явный эффект "нового платья короля" и внятно подтвердил то, что и так многим было понятно о прогрессирующем угасании небогатого интеллекта действующего президента и о его полном несоответствии занимаемой должности верховного главнокомандующего.

Everybody [in the White House] was painfully aware of the increasing pace of his repetitions. It used to be inside of 30 minutes he’d repeat, word-for-word and expression-for-expression, the same three stories — now it was within 10 minutes. Indeed, many of his tweets were the product of his repetitions — he just couldn’t stop saying something. <…> Hoping for the best, with their personal futures as well as the country’s future depending on it, my indelible impression of talking to them and observing them through much of the first year of his presidency, is that they all — 100 percent — came to believe he was incapable of functioning in his job.
At Mar-a-Lago, just before the new year, a heavily made-up Trump failed to recognize a succession of old friends.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/trump-is-mentally-unwell-and-everyone-around-him-knows-it.html

Миф о гениальном "master persuader" разбивается, когда выясняется, что знаменитые твиты "Xэмингуея твиттера" пишутся не как стратегические ходы в четерыхмерных шахматах, а как пересказ увиденного за минуту до этого по телевизору.

After comparing the president’s tweets to Fox coverage every day since October, I can tell you that the Fox-Trump feedback loop is happening far more often than you think. There is no strategy to Trump’s Twitter feed; he is not trying to distract the media. He is being distracted. He darts with quark-like speed from topic to topic in his tweets because that’s how cable news works. Here’s what’s also shocking: A man with unparalleled access to the world’s most powerful information-gathering machine, with an intelligence budget estimated at $73 billion last year, prefers to rely on conservative cable news hosts to understand current events.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/05/trump-media-feedback-loop-216248

С другой стороны, республиканские лидеры сплачиваются стеной вокруг Великого Вождя и, невзирая на ущерб для своей репутации, принимают беспрецедентные шаги для того, чтобы отмазать его от угрозы расследования. Может сложиться такое впечатление, что защита Трампа от Рашагейта превратилась в главный смысл существования республиканской партии.

It's very sad that Republicans, even some that were carried over the line on my back, do very little to protect their President.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2017

Вопросы, на которые пока нет внятного ответа:

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Тереза Мэй произнесла на днях неожиданно жесткую речь в адрес России.

“I have a very simple message for Russia. We know what you are doing. And you will not succeed. Because you underestimate the resilience of our democracies, the enduring attraction of free and open societies, and the commitment of western nations to the alliances that bind us. The UK will do what is necessary to protect ourselves, and work with our allies to do likewise.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/13/theresa-may-accuses-russia-of-interfering-in-elections-and-fake-news

Это происходит на фоне публикаций о роли, которые российские тролли и боты играли в агитации за Brexit.

Russian Twitter accounts posted more than 45,000 messages about Brexit in 48 hours during last year’s referendum in an apparently co-ordinated attempt to sow discord, The Times can reveal.
More than 150,000 accounts based in Russia, which had previously confined their posts to subjects such as the Ukrainian conflict, switched attention to Brexit in the days leading up to last year’s vote, according to research for an upcoming paper by data scientists at Swansea University and the University of California, Berkeley.
Russian activity spiked on June 23, the day of the referendum, and on June 24 when the result was announced. From posting fewer than 1,000 tweets a day before June 13, the accounts — many of which are virulently pro-Putin — posted 39,000 tweets on June 24 before dropping off almost entirely.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/russia-used-web-posts-to-disrupt-brexit-vote-h9nv5zg6c

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Покинувший Белый дом верный телохранитель Трампа Кит Шиллер давал показания в Конгрессе. Его спрашивали в частности по поводу эпизода 2013 г. с GoldenShowers в московском отеле. Шиллер добавил подробностей, но полного алиби Трампу не предоставил.

After a business meeting before the Miss Universe Pageant in 2013, a Russian participant offered to "send five women" to Donald Trump's hotel room in Moscow, his longtime bodyguard told Congress this week, according to three sources who were present for the interview.
Two of the sources said the bodyguard, Keith Schiller, viewed the offer as a joke, and immediately responded, "We don't do that type of stuff."
The conversation with the Russian about the five women took place after a morning meeting about the pageant in Moscow broke up, two sources said. <...>
That night, two sources said, Schiller said he discussed the conversation with Trump as Trump was walking back to his hotel room, and Schiller said the two men laughed about it as Trump went to bed alone. Schiller testified that he stood outside Trump's hotel room for a time and then went to bed.
One source noted that Schiller testified he eventually left Trump's hotel room door and could not say for sure what happened during the remainder of the night.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-bodyguard-testifies-russian-offered-trump-women-was-turned-down-n819386

Джон Шиндлер считает, что рассказ в досье - дезинформация и что в обороте находится много поддельных видеозаписей с Трампом. Одновременно он считает, ссылаясь на свои источники, что есть и много подлинного компромата, в том числе с малолетками.

I’ve investigated this issue for the past couple years. I’ve talked to dozens of well-placed sources (many of them longtime spy-friends), and I can share with you some basic conclusions. As many as a dozen intelligence services worldwide, on four continents, are in possession of some sort of “Trump tape” featuring sexual escapades of a controversial nature; in some cases, the women involved appear to be underage. Some of these tapes have been shared with the Mueller investigation.
http://observer.com/2017/11/spy-circles-suspect-kremlin-is-behind-dozens-of-fake-trump-sex-tapes/

Опять мучаться проклятой неизвестностью...

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Печально известный Девин Нунес ведёт партизанскую войну, рассылая письма в Министерство юстиции и ФБР в попытке дискредитировать досье Стила, а вместе с ним все расследование Рашагейта.

It may seem odd that Republicans believe going after the Steele memos, which included salacious allegations about Trump, is a way to help the president. But they appear to have two goals: to suggest the Steele memos were actually cooked up by the Russian government—and thus are proof that Moscow did not favor Trump in 2016—and to undercut the FBI’s Russia investigation by linking its origins to the Steele memos.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/09/trumps-congressional-allies-are-manipulating-the-steele-dossier-to-undercut-the-russia-investigation/

Нунес не совсем одинок. Помимо упомянутого в процитированной статье Чака Грассли, его поддерживает печально известный Трей Гауди, который сменил внезапно вышедшего в отставку Джейсона Чаффетса на посту председателя House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Гауди пока не выписывает собственные повестки, но поддерживает нападки на Коми, ФБР и Стила.

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Одно из загадочных мест в досье Стила - сведения о роли Дмитрия Пескова в российской спецоперации. Хотя Песков имеет прямой выход на Путина, он всего лишь пресс-секретарь и, казалось бы, не обладает административными рычагами власти. Однако в досье ему отводилась центральная роль, включая конфликт за контроль над спецоперацией с Сергеем Ивановым и решение о вбросе компромата на Клинтон (вероятно почты Подесты).

1. Source G, a senior Kremlin official, confided that the CLINTON dossier was controlled exclusively by Chief Kremlin spokesman, Dmitriy PESKOV, who was responsible for compiling/handling it on the explicit instructions of PUTIN.

2. Continuing on this theme the source close to IVANOV reported that PESKOV now was “scared shitless” that he would be scapegoated by PUTIN and the Kremlin and held responsible for the backlash against Russian political interference in the US election. IVANOV was determined to stop PESKOV playing an independent role in relation to the US going forward and the source fully expected the presidential spokesman now to lay low.

3. Continuing on this theme, the senior PA official said the situation now was that the Kremlin had further ‘kompromat’ on candidate CLINTON and had been considering releasing this via “plausibly deniable” channels after the Duma (legislative) elections were out of the way in mid- September. There was however a growing train of thought and associated lobby, arguing that the Russians could still make candidate CLINTON look ‘weak and stupid’ by provoking her into railing against PUTIN and Russia without the need to release more of her e-mails. Presidential Spokesman, Dmitriy PESKOV remained a key figure in the operation, although any final decision on dissemination of further material would be taken by PUTIN.

https://themoscowproject.org/dossier.html

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July 2019

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