Те же и там же

[tijd.livejournal.com]

Под шум и треск других скандалов осталось без должного внимания вчерашнее заседание в комиссии Сената по вооруженным силам на тему Worldwide Threats. Показания давали руководители разведки.
https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/18-03-06-worldwide-threats

В подготовленном докладе директора национальной разведки Коутса говорится о том, что от России в 2018 не ожидается ничего хорошего.

Influence operations, especially through cyber means, will remain a significant threat to US interests as they are low-cost, relatively low-risk, and deniable ways to retaliate against adversaries, to shape foreign perceptions, and to influence populations. Russia probably will be the most capable and aggressive source of this threat in 2018, although many countries and some nonstate actors are exploring ways to use influence operations, both domestically and abroad.
We assess that the Russian intelligence services will continue their efforts to disseminate false information via Russian state-controlled media and covert online personas about US activities to encourage anti-US political views. Moscow seeks to create wedges that reduce trust and confidence in democratic processes, degrade democratization efforts, weaken US partnerships with European allies, undermine Western sanctions, encourage anti-US political views, and counter efforts to bring Ukraine and other former Soviet states into European institutions.
- Foreign elections are critical inflection points that offer opportunities for Russia to advance its interests both overtly and covertly. The 2018 US mid-term elections are a potential target for Russian influence operations.
- At a minimum, we expect Russia to continue using propaganda, social media, false-flag personas, sympathetic spokespeople, and other means of influence to try to exacerbate social and political fissures in the United States.
https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Coats_03-06-18.pdf

При ответах на вопросы Коутс, однако не мог дать вразумительного ответа о том, что администрация Трампа собирается по этому поводу делать. Вопрос о санкциях он отфутболил к Минфину и заикнулся про 13 человек с фабрики троллей, обвиненных Мюллером.



Джим Клеппер, предшественник Коутса, рассказывал, как обсуждался вопрос о санкциях, принятых Обамой в декабре 2016. После многочисленных дискуссий они решили ограничиться высылкой всего 35 из многочисленных российских шпионов, потому что опасались ответных мер Путина.

We had a lot of, obviously, a lot of discussion about taking the action we ultimately took, which was PNG'ing 35 of the top intelligence operatives of the Russians. Make no mistake, that’s what they were. They were not diplomats. And, of course, closing the two dachas and sanctioning individual people, I don’t know that there was a conscious discussion so much about whether to do it before or after the election, but just getting a consensus among the interagency about what to do. <...> I, as others did, found that strange that they didn’t retaliate. In fact, that’s one of the factors that bore on the discussion: Well, how many Russian operatives should we PNG? We could have PNG’d a lot more. They had many more than 35 intelligence operatives in this country. The Russians probably have more spies present in our country than any other country, to include China. So that was a tempering factor, because we were figuring that, for every one that we PNG’d, there would be a reciprocal action on the part of the Russians.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/james-clapper/

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август 2016

[tijd.livejournal.com]

Детективы-любители проследили перемещения личного самолета Олега Дерипаски в конце июле и начале августа 2016.
https://medium.com/@ScottMStedman/deripaskas-private-jet-newark-moscow-molde-for-secret-yacht-meeting-280494a6cb48

Складывается любопытная картина.

31 июля 2016 Манафорт дает интервью CBS и умело выкручивается в ответ на вопрос о России.

DICKERSON: But House Speaker Paul Ryan's spokesman said Russia is a global menace led by a devious thug.
Is that something Donald Trump would disagree with, do you think?
MANAFORT: I think Mr. Trump has made it very clear. He views Russia to be somebody that we need to be firm with.
And he has defined that he would put American interests first in dealing with Russia, and as well as any other country. To get into what his specific words are, he said them. He views Russia as a foreign power that has its own interests at stake, and we, the United States, have to put America's interests first.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-transcripts-july-31-2016-sanders-manafort-priebus/

В тот же день он договаривается о встрече с Константином Килимником.

После встречи Манафорта и Килимника частный самолет Дерипаски (с неизвестными лицами на борту) вылетает из Ньюарка в Москву. В Москве он забирает Сергея Приходько и везет его на яхту к Дерипаске и Рыбке, где происходит обсуждение известий с выборов в США.

4 августа 2016 (день прилета самолета в Москву)



Директор ЦРУ Бреннан звонит директору ФБР Бортникову и делает ему серьезное предупреждение, чтобы прекратилось вмешательство в американские выборы.

On Aug. 4, as evidence of that campaign mounted, Mr. Brennan warned Alexander V. Bortnikov, the director of Russia’s Federal Security Service, known as the F.S.B., not to meddle in the election. Not only would such interference damage relations between the countries, he said, but it was also certain to backfire. “I said that all Americans, regardless of political affiliation or whom they might support in the election, cherish their ability to elect their own leaders without outside interference or disruption,” Mr. Brennan said. “I said American voters would be outraged by any Russian attempt to interfere in the election.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/23/us/politics/john-brennan-russia-trump-campaign-cia.html

Бреннан не сомневается, что Бортников незамедлительно передаст его слова Путину.

Mr. Bortnikov denied it. I then came back to it and said, “This is something that you need to take very seriously,” and he said he would relay it to Mr. Putin. And I know that Mr. Bortnikov, who works very closely with Mr. Putin, would relay that to him immediately, because in past conversations, I asked Mr. Bortnikov to pass messages to Mr. Putin, and I got a response within an hour, so he would have immediate access to him. Mr. Bortnikov promised to do that. I didn’t hear back from him with Mr. Putin’s reaction and response. But Mr. Bortnikov said they’d be willing to work with either candidate who emerged victorious in the election.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/john-brennan/

5 августа 2016 (время вылета самолета Дерипаски в Норвегию)

Появляется публикация о странном поведении Картера Пейджа во время его поездки в Москву. Интересны приведенные в статье комментарии Дэвида Крамера (которому предстоит сыграть ключевую роль в судьбе досье Стила) и Хоуп Хикс (которая отрицает связь Пейджа с кампанией Трампа).

“It scares me,” said David Kramer, who was responsible for Russia and Ukraine at the State Department during the George W. Bush administration. He called Page’s speech in Moscow and recent comments by Trump on the possibility of lifting sanctions against Moscow “deeply unsettling.”
Asked to comment on Page’s public statements and campaign role, Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks said Page was an “informal foreign policy adviser” who “does not speak for Mr. Trump or the campaign.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-advisers-public-comments-ties-to-moscow-stir-unease-in-both-parties/2016/08/05/2e8722fa-5815-11e6-9aee-8075993d73a2_story.html

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